"It's Sunday morning in Greenville, North Caroline and this congregation is celebrating their survival and mourning their losses in a flood that has claimed more than 50 lives and caused billions of dollars of damage. It has been classified as a one in 500-year weather event, and it is yet another example of the extreme weather the world has been witnessing in recent times.

"The deluge hit North Carolina with such force that the main river in Greenville rose 10 metres above its normal height. And even though it has dropped just as quickly, thousands have been left homeless.

Merle Glenn: "These people have seen a flood that they have not had any records of, anything like this, as far back as they can go - to 500 years. It is one of the largest operations that they have had in the United States as far as bringing in assistance and workers.

North Carolina Flood Victim: "It's terrible. And me, I'm a Christian and I believe it is just the beginning of sorrows such as it was spoken of in the Bible.

Narration: "But the suffering sent from heaven may have an earthly origin, the work of human and not divine hands, and maybe now we are reaping what we have sown in the earth's atmosphere over the past 200 years.

"This is the Cray T3E 900 at the Hadley Centre in England. It is the most powerful climate modelling supercomputer in the world. For the past 10 years it has been building a weather forecast for the 21st century. Its latest prediction is that by 2050 tropical rainforests will turn to desert. The increasing heat along the equatorial regions is already making some rainforests so dry they can simply be cleared by burning.

Dr Tim Johns: "Well the temperature change in the Amazon in this particular model is predicted to be something like seven degrees at 2050, so that is a very large change.

Q: "Seven degrees?

Dr Tim Johns: "Seven degrees Celsius, yes. This is a large change compared with the global average, and that does illustrate the point that the global average hides a lot of regional variation.

Narration: "All plant life will be affected by these rapid changes in climate. The rainforests, which soak up more than a fifth of the world's carbon, will become one of the greatest sources of carbon dioxide pollution when they die and decay. And the early warning signs are already here . Even pine forests in Canada are starting to die as the snow line moves further north.

Sir John Houghton, United Nations Panel on Climate Change: "Their forests are suffering already because of the increase in temperature and forests don't like to have that sort of change, and it is the rate of change that is important. We are talking a rate of change which is going to be faster than has occurred for perhaps 10,000 years at least.

Narration: "Change the atmosphere and you change life on earth. The only reason we have a planet to live on at all is because of our unique atmosphere. Without its ability to trap the sun's heat, the earth would be a frozen wasteland. Our atmosphere is a thin blanket of greenhouse gases, the most important of which is carbon dioxide. But put too much carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere and it is like adding an extra blanket - it will block the escaping heat and the earth will heat up. After 200 years of burning fossil fuels, coupled with cutting down forests, we have done just that. If nothing is done the earth could heat up by almost four degrees by the end of the 21st century.

Sir John Houghton, United Nations Panel on Climate Change: "If we do nothing, we will have to prepare for a sea level rise of, of the order of half a metre, maybe more, by the end of the next century.

Narration: "And sea levels are rising. In early 1999 two small unpopulated islands disappeared beneath the Pacific Ocean and it
was barely noticed. But once you realise that a billion people live on or near the coast, then rising seas take on a new meaning.

"But there is resistance to the
mainstream scientific theory on Global warming and that resistance is strongest in the United States. Prof. Pat Michaels is one of the most prominent global warming sceptics. He has published numerous articles attacking the dire predictions of scientists like Sir John Houghton.

Professor Pat Michaels, Climatologist, University of Virginia: "We have a society that's preconditioned to believe that weather and climate, and weather and climate change are all bad. And the reality is that there is no law, no holy writ that says that's true.

Sir John Houghton: "Well I'm afraid Pat Michaels just hasn't read the literature, hasn't looked at all the studies which have been made, the very careful studies which have been made, about the effects of global warming on humanity and on the world as a whole.

Narration: "Sir John Houghton, a former director of the Hadley Centre, today jointly heads the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. He is one of the world's leading scientists on global warming. Rising sea levels are one of his major concerns.

Sir John Houghton: "Many people of course, in many countries and many cities, will be able to buy their way out of it, but at a cost, by putting up better sea defences, But if you live in Bangladesh, or if you live in South China, if you live in the Nile Delta of Egypt, if you live on islands in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, then much of your land will disappear. Tens of millions live in that land and they will become refugees.

Professor Pat Michaels: "These things can be adapted to. Now, If we want to make a statement that the folks in Bangladesh are incapable of adapting to the slow changes over the course of a hundred years when other societies clearly adapted and flourished, - in fact made money on adapting to their environment - we're saying, we're making a cultural judgement that I am not prepared to make.

Narration: "While some Americans question the science, the European attitude is very different: global warming is taken seriously. After all, rising sea levels are already a threat to the biggest city in Europe.

Queen Elizabeth the Second: "It is a great tribute to the wisdom of Parliament that London has now been made free from the threat of flooding.

Delegate: "Now these are all things that we wrote down.

Narration: "At this climate change
conference in Washington the delegates from nations that are most affected by rising seas and global warming are concerned about the delay caused by ongoing scientific debate while their countries are literally going under.

Rajendra Shende: "It has been predicted in the impact scenario that they will just vanish. So it is a question of survival of those countries and I think at this time there is such a world wide assessment, panels have been thinking and predicting such kind of impacts, I think the sceptics are doing more harm to this process.

Narration: "It was the leaders of the Pacific Island nations that made the clearest call for cutting emissions at the Kyoto climate change conference in 1997. (Applause) At Kyoto, the world was led to believe that decisive action had been taken. When using 1990 levels as a baseline, the developed nations agreed to an overall cut of 5 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions. They agreed to reach their targets by around 2010.

Al Gore: "The United States remains firmly committed to a strong, binding target that will reduce our emissions by nearly 30 per cent from what they would otherwise be.

Narration: "Kyoto was also a political compromise. The developing world was to be initially exempt from emission cuts. And while members of the European union were pushing for cuts of up to 20 per cent, Australia, one of the world's highest polluters per person, refused to sign until it was given an 8 per cent increase in its emissions.


"It was also scientific compromise: the science says we will only fix the greenhouse problem with at least 60 per cent cut in carbon emissions. Sir Crispin Tickell, a former UN Ambassador and climate change advisor to the British Government for the past 15 years believes Kyoto should be seen just as the first step.

Sir Crispin Tickell: "The kind of reductions to which the world is talking about in the Kyoto Protocol, are not nearly enough, but that's to miss the point. The point is that the Kyoto Protocol is an effort to try and restrain the industrialised countries who have made this mess to give the example in beginning to clear it up. African

American Business Woman (in TV commercial): "I worked hard to build my business, but now a proposed United Nations climate treaty could put me out of business by raising the cost of natural gas, electricity and gasoline by 25 to 50 per cent.

Narration: "But while the US had signed the Kyoto Protocol, it was TV commercials like these, paid for by anti-Kyoto lobbyists, that helped convince US politicians the treaty was bad for America. The ads point out that developing industrial powers like China would not be bound by the treaty. And given that any International Treaty has to be passed by a 2/3 majority in the Senate, it now appears certain that Kyoto will not become law in the U.S.

Dana Rohrabacher: "One person doesn't have the ability to commit anybody to a treaty.

Narration: "Dana Rohrabacher was a speechwriter for Ronald Reagan for seven years. He's now a Republican Congressman for California. He's one of the politicians leading the charge against the climate treaty.

Dana Rohrabacher: "The American people have a good sense. They're not going to commit themselves to a treaty like happened in Kyoto which will in the end be a massive shift of wealth away from the western democracies over to countries like China and other developing countries which are run by dictators and crooks, by and large. And the American people are not going to lower our standards of living for that especially when it is over some issue like global warming, which is not scientifically proven and could well be just a bunch of baloney.

Sir Crispin Tickell: "The US with Australia and Canada are the biggest polluters in this planet at the moment. And they have got cause to have a very large guilty conscience. And that comes out in aggressive, incoherent statements about how wicked the rest of the world is in wanting them to do something, and how the American way of life, as George Bush once assured the US electorate before Rio, the American way of life is not in question. It's going to go on forever and we like it that way.

Narration: "But the science is clear. It's man, not nature that's overloading the atmosphere with excess carbon. Every year there are more than three billion tonnes of extra carbon left in the air that the natural system cannot absorb. Almost two thirds of the world's carbon emissions come from electricity generation andtransport. And the United States with its long-term love affair with conspicuous consumption and burning up energy, is the world's biggest polluter.

American Woman: "They want their big fancy limousines and cars to drive in. Well, it's just the American way.

Narration: "The American way also means the freedom to drive massive mobile motor homes that get seven miles to the gallon, or around two
kilometers to the litre.

American Man: "Well I run all over the United States. I burn up a lot of it, but I'm only one of hundreds of thousands.

Narration: "The American way of life has been built on cheap energy. The fossil fuels lobbyists in Washington want to keep it that way. They say
ratifying Kyoto will put an end to the American dream.

William O'Keefe: "First of all, there is no conceivable way that the Kyoto Protocol will be ratified by the United States Senate - that has been made very clear.

Q: "Does the American Petroleum Institute donate money to both the Democrats and the Republican parties?

William O'Keefe: "No, we don't, Sir.

Q: "Would members of the organisation do it though?

William O'Keefe: "Of course. That's every American's right to take their money and contribute to political candidates and political parties.

Q: "But some of the oil companies are the biggest companies in America - wouldn't they be also the biggest donors?

William O'Keefe: "Well, I don't have a list of who makes the biggest donations to the political parties. You can research that. I doubt that you would find that the oil companies are at the top of the list.

Narration: "But figures from the Washington Centre for Responsive Politics show that the oil and gas sector was the fifth biggest industry donor in the last American elections, giving more than nine million dollars.

Narration: "The video series, 'The Greening of Planet Earth' and 'The Greening of Planet Earth continues', produced by US lobby Western Fuels Association, has been widely circulated in Washington. It puts the view that a carbon-saturated atmosphere won't kill the planet, it will help it grow better.

Professor Pat Michaels (in 'The Greening of Planet Earth'): The evidence is that increasing Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is going to cause a disaster is somewhere between slim and none. However the evidence that it is doing a good thing by lengthening the growing season and making plants grow better is somewhere between large and overwhelming.

Narration: "The programmes feature a number of scientists including Professor Pat Michaels who was recommended as a leading climatologist both by the American Petroleum Institute and Congressman Dana Rohrabacher. These videos and Professor Michael's evidence before Congress have both been influential in forming US policy on global warming.

Professor Pat Michaels: "It is anathema in the public mores to consider the notion that something human beings might do to the atmosphere as a result of their economic activity could be good. Yes it very well could be.

Narration: "It is this combination of lobbyists, some sceptical scientists and politicians that Ross Gelbspan believes will stop any international action on climate change.

Ross Gelbspan: "In the US, the fossil fuel lobby has spent millions and millions and millions of dollars on disinformation campaigns because they know in today's world, unless the US takes action, the rest of the world really can't do too much.

Narration: "While the US and Europe
are fighting over Kyoto, there are some developing countries that are showing the rest of the world what can be done. There is no debate over climate change in the Central American Republic of Costa Rica. This is San Jose the capital, and citizens here are already paying a 5% carbon tax which is being used to plant trees and protect forests. And when it comes to renewable energy, Costa Rica is a world leader.

Franz Tattenbach: "In reality there are more concrete projects of emission reductions taking place now in Central America probably than in many industrial nations. And, as you know, there's kind of an irony that we were not part of the problem, we are getting hit very badly by climate related events in the last couple of years, and we are the ones doing most about it.

Narration: "Costa Rica, although it is a developing nation has the highest proportion of protected forest of any country in the world, and now it has turned to trees as a way of making money in the battle to beat global warming. Because trees turn carbon dioxide into wood when they photosynthesise, and it is possible tocalculate the carbon they store and sell the 'offset' or 'credit' on the international market. A tonne of carbon offsets stored in Costa Rican trees sells for $10 US. This new carbon trade was an outcome from Kyoto, a way to help nations meet their emissions targets. If polluters can't meet their targets, they can pay tree planters to soak up the difference and store their problem.

Franz Tattenbach: "The incentives have worked. We have seen a total reverse in the losses of forest in the past 10 years or five years in Costa Rica due to this programme. Farmers are responding not only to payments but to the anticipation of incentives of this nature. They're
anticipating that the forest might be worth more than just the wood...

Narration: "Franz Tattenbach heads a non-government organisation called
FUNDECOR. He set up the world's first carbon offset deal worth two million dollars with a Norwegian consortium in 1997. Today he has a group from the German development bank and the World Bank looking at how his country is capitalising on Kyoto. Farmers are now being paid to plant trees, and paid not to cut down forests on their land.

Franz Tattenbach, FUNDECOR, Costa
Rica: "It is a surprise now how in Costa Rica a farmer, any simple farmer, could tell you about carbon offsets and why they might be producing some sort of global good that might be interested to be purchased by some Norwegian company or the Norwegian Government. And that's quite fascinating.

Carlos Gonzales: "In my opinion they just haven't realised that we are all going to destroy ourselves. If nature disappears, this will just become a hell, right?

Narration: "While Costa Rica has been leading the developing world in Carbon Trading, other nations have been quick to seize the opportunity. One of these countries is Australia, which will need to plant millions of trees just to get close to it's Kyoto commitment. Australia is still clearing hundreds of thousands of hectares of land each year. Far more than is being planted. And so schemes to gain carbon credits through tree planting are now being pushed at all levels of government and private industry. One of the first major deals in Australia was by BP. It wants to be the greenest oil company in the world and it is
planting up to 60,000 hectares of trees in Western Australia, just to cover the million tonnes of carbon dioxide it emits each year from it's refinery outside Perth.

Dr Bernard Bulkin: "The carbon dioxide concentration is going up. It appears that global temperatures are going up and that there are other effects happening, so taking a precautionary approach to me makes
complete sense.

Narration: "The trade in carbon credits will make it a lot easier for many polluters to meet their countries targets. But experts say this trade is an easy way out. Although it may provide breathing space, ultimately the pollution has to stop and companies have to switch to renewable energy.

Sir John Houghton: "The whole problem with carbon trading is that it can be used as a cop out, of course, by some countries who don't really make sure that on a global long term basis we actually reduce the amount of carbon dioxide that gets into the atmosphere.

Franz: "Actually, for the atmosphere, it is totally irrelevant if the emission reduction happens in the US or in Australia or it happens in Costa Rica. I mean, a tonne of carbon emissions that has been reduced here or there, it is the same for climate change. You can plant a tree, its wood, which is about 25% carbon, that carbon is there. It can not have come from anywhere except a CO2 that was in the atmosphere.

Ross Gelbspan: "I think it is very
good for Costa Rica and I think Costa Rica's government is very
conscientious about the Costa Rican ecosystems. I think when you look at it from the point of view of the buyers, it is a very cheap way for them to buy their way out of making real energy emission reductions. I think it is basically dodging what the real responsibilities are to the rest of the planet and to future generations.

Bishop Randy B. Royal: "Amen. Whatever God's message was through this storm, whatever it was, he has our attention on this morning.

Narration: "God certainly has the attention of the people of flood ravaged North Carolina. And the rest of the world is now faced with a choice: if we are convinced that global warming is man made and not heaven sent, then we have to take heed of the warning signs - the disappearing forests, the dying coral reefs and the extreme weather. And if we decide to act, we should remember the words of the scientists and not the politicians, who tell us that just to start solving the problem we have to cut our emissions not by 5%, but by at least 50%! And at present they are still rising.

Ross Gelbspan Author of 'The Heat Is On': What is our obligation to the future? What matters after we pack it in? Who cares what happens after that? I don't know the answer to that. I just know that I think people who don't care about it are missing something inside."

Emission Impossible - Original Extended Version

The original extended 45 minute version of Emission Impossible is available to viewers of Earth Report on VHS. The programme allows Ian Henschke to take an in-depth view of the Costa Rica government rainforest carbon for dollars scheme, the Western Australian plantation programme, and the American pro-fossil fuel lobbying machine. Place your orders at tve-dist@tve.org.uk

Emission Impossible is a co-production of ABC/4 Corners Television and TVE made possible with support from UNEP and the Norwegian Ministry of the Environment.