Boiling Point

"If the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water."
Ismail Serageldin 1995, Chairman, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

Before he became UN Secretary General, Boutros Ghali raised the spectre of a war over the waters of the Nile. No nation has yet gone to war over water. But this week's Earth Report finds disturbing evidence of a rising number of international water flashpoints.

Will wars in this century be fought over water? There have been dire predictions from top international officials and even, reportedly the CIA. Although many countries are now experiencing chronic water shortages, to date the world has not yet seen an all out water war. But tension is reaching boiling point on many of the world's 250 shared rivers, and recent events suggest that conflict over water is far more likely to be fought out day to day, between neighbours and communities.

Boiling Point goes to potential water flashpoints on three continents to find out whether competition over water will lead to conflict - or, just maybe, to international co-operation.
 

Untamed River

The Okavango is the last great undeveloped river in Africa - but it won’t remain so for long. The countries it flows through, now want to use Okavango waters to help develop their economies. Unless a binding agreement is made, the river and its water could become a potential source of regional conflict.

Still a relatively unspoilt wetland, and a World Heritage site, the Okavango delta is home to a variety of plant and animal life virtually unrivalled in Africa.

The Okavango is shared by three countries: Starting in Angola, the river flows along the Namibian border and drains out into the Kalahari desert in Botswana, creating a vast expanse of lush wetland in the middle of the desert. Unusually, it never reaches the sea.

The Okavango delta, a World Heritage Site, is home to a diversity of plant and animal life, virtually unrivalled in Africa. The delta's natural wealth supports over a million people - and they are worried that if the river is developed upstream the delta will dry out and they'll lose their lifeline.

The Threat of Peace

At first glance, the end of Angola’s 27 years of civil war seems like it could only benefit the region. However, the thousands of refugees returning home will put more pressure on the river’s resources as proposed dams divert water for agriculture and other development. Namibia also plans to build a dam for hydroelectric power on their stretch of the river. These dams will not only change the flow of the river, but trap nutrient rich sediment that is one of the fundamental building blocks of the lush Okavango delta downstream in Botswana.
 

Defusing the Timebomb

The Okavango River Basin Commission (OKACOM) was formed by the three countries in 1994 to try and resolve the conflict before the river system is drastically altered. The Commission relies on joint management to balance the needs of people and the ecosystem and is a partner in the 'Water for Peace' project, a programme of Green Cross International and UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization). Water for Peace is aimed at the prevention of conflicts and promotion of cooperation over water resources in six international river basins. Green Cross will present the results of the Water for Peace at the Third World Water Forum in Japan during the spring of 2003.
 

Showdown at the Rio Grande

The Rio Grande runs 1600 km along the border between Mexico and the United States, a border which has been the scene for many a past conflict. Although the river itself has been peacefully managed for generations, today tension is returned to the waters of the Rio Grande.
Under a 1944 treaty both countries are required to exchange water each year at the driest parts of the border. But with a rapidly growing population and a major expansion of water intensive crops, there is increasing competition for ever scarcer water supplies on both sides. In the last ten years the region has experienced recurrent droughts and things have now come to a head.
US farmers claim Mexico has reneged on its side of the bargain and has a 'water debt' that keeps accumulating. Mexicans say they’ve been suffering in a drought for the last ten years and have water shortages themselves. Under the terms of the treaty, in times of extraordinary drought they are not obliged to fulfil their quota.

The Rio Grande runs 1600 kilometres along the border between Mexico and the United States. Under a 1944 treaty, both countries are required to exchange water at the driest parts of the border.

The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) was created in 1889 to resolve these kinds of issues and the future of the Rio Grande lies in the hands of the water Commission. But the farmers hold out little hope.

Who Owns Rain?

Water may not cause outright wars between nations, but it can pit neighbour against neighbour and community against community. The real wars over water are quietly taking place at local level, where it can be used as a military or political tool.

In the Middle East water is more important than anything else. Without a reliable supply, life simply isn't possible. In the Israeli occupied West Bank, the balance of power is played out in the allocation of water rights between Jews and Palestinians.

Kayed Jaber is a Palestinian. For generations, his family has farmed a valley near Hebron. Kayed and his brother Ismael grow fruit and vegetables for market - an activity made possible in the parched desert by the ancient technique of storing rainwater in underground reservoirs. But the old reservoirs are not big enough so the brothers are building two new ones.

The real wars over water are quietly taking place at local level, where water can be used as a powerful military or political tool.

In the hills above Ismael and Kayed's lands, there is an Israeli settlement called Kyriat Arbat, where the settlers enjoy lush green parkland and a swimming pool. The settlement is connected to the Israeli water grid so they don't need to collect rainwater - they can just turn on the tap.

Since the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict, the population of Israel and the West Bank has more than doubled. Both Arab and Israeli statistics show that in another 25 years the population in this part of the country is set to double again. As numbers increase, daily life becomes an increasingly bitter competition for land and water.

Now, Kayed and Ismael's water problem has turned into a battle with the Israeli Civil Administration.

The Civil Administration believe that Kayed and Ismael's reservoirs haven't been built to catch rainwater but to store water illegally diverted from pipelines destined for Israeli settlements. Even though there is no proof of water-stealing, Israeli army bulldozers move in to destroy the reservoirs anyway. By effectively cutting off the Kayed's water supply, the Israeli's are making life virtually impossible for them.

No Water, No Future

Three months later, Earth Report returned to find the brothers' situation was even worse. They were warned to stop farming and a demolition notice was served on Ismael's house. The Civil Administration was able to do this because the brothers' farmland lies within Area C of the West Bank - an area which under the Oslo Peace Agreements falls under complete Israeli control. In Ismael's view, the Civil Administration aimed to make life so unbearable that they would leave of their own accord, rather than forcibly remove them. Either way the end result is the same.

Progress for the Israeli's, it seems, comes at a high price for the Palestinians.

Unless peace accords spawn agreements on water these conflicts are certain to be repeated.